The Sound of Silence: Catching a Falling Knife or Seizing Opportunity?

Real Estate Observations from a Weekend in Celina & Prosper

Last weekend, I drove through Celina, Prosper, and North McKinney—areas widely considered the growth engines of North Texas real estate. My goal was simple: visit 15 open houses to gauge the actual foot traffic on the ground.

You know what I saw? Empty driveways.

The busiest house I visited in McKinney had four groups walk through. At most other stops, I was the only visitor. The feedback from the hosting agents was consistent: showings were down, and the phone wasn't ringing as often as usual.

Seasonality or a Signal?

It is important to look at this fairly. It was early December, the weather was gloomy, and many buyers were likely waiting on the outcome of the recent Fed meeting. Real estate activity historically dips during the holidays.

However, one data point suggests this might be more than just a seasonal pause: Days on Market (DOM).

During my tour, I encountered homes that had been listed for 190 days. These properties were listed in June—peak selling season—and have remained unsold through the summer and fall. This indicates that for certain segments of the market, the slowdown isn't just about the calendar month; it’s about price and positioning.

A Tale of Two Markets

Real estate data often looks at averages, but averages can be misleading. What I observed on the ground was a bifurcated market—essentially two different markets operating at the same time.

Market A: The "Cream Puffs" (Under 14 Days on Market)

Despite the overall quietness, I did see activity at specific properties. One home in Prosper had multiple groups visiting and reportedly went under contract quickly.

• Characteristics: These homes appeared to be priced aggressively against comparable sales, were staged perfectly, and required no immediate work. The data suggests that even in a slower market, "turn-key" properties still command attention.

Market B: The "Stale Loaves" (90+ Days on Market)

On the other side of the spectrum were homes sitting for 90 to 190 days.

• Characteristics: These homes were often virtually identical to the ones selling, but frequently priced at levels seen in 2023.

• The Dynamic: When a home sits for 100+ days, it often faces a stigma. Buyers may assume a defect exists, whereas the reality might simply be a disconnect between the list price and current interest rates.

The Investor Perspective:

This split creates a choice. One option is to compete for the fresh, "perfect" inventory. The other is to explore the aged inventory where sellers may be facing carrying costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance) on a vacant home, potentially opening the door for negotiation that wouldn't exist on a new listing.

The "Shiny Object" Trap: New Builds vs. Resale

In areas like Celina and Prosper, buyers are often choosing between a brand-new home and a resale home (5–10 years old). Builders are currently aggressive with marketing, often offering "rate buydowns" that lower the monthly payment for the first year or two.

While the newness is appealing, a side-by-side comparison reveals distinct financial differences that buyers should factor into their decision.

1. The "Naked Home" Costs

Builders often offer closing cost assistance, but the price usually excludes items that are standard in a resale purchase. Buyers comparing a $600,000 new build vs. a $600,000 resale should account for out-of-pocket cash needs post-closing:

• Window Treatments: Blinds or shutters ($3,000+).

• Landscaping: Trees, flower beds, and sprinkler systems.

• Fencing & Gutters: Sometimes excluded in builder packages.

• Resale Advantage: A resale home essentially comes "finished," potentially saving the buyer $20,000+ in immediate cash outlay.

2. The Tax Reality (MUDs & PIDs)

In our local market, most new developments are situated in MUDs (Municipal Utility Districts) or PIDs. It is worth noting that many resale homes in Celina are also in these districts, so the tax rate (often ~2.7-2.9%) might be similar.

• The Exception: Buyers looking for strictly lower tax rates often need to look specifically at established neighborhoods in areas like North McKinney where these bonds may not exist.

3. School Stability

For families, school zones are a primary driver. In high-growth zones, school boundaries change frequently to accommodate population density. Buying a new build carries a higher probability of future rezoning. Established neighborhoods typically have more settled attendance boundaries, offering a layer of predictability for parents.

The Hidden Signal: Reading the Agent

During my tour, I noticed a stark contrast in how homes were presented—not just the staging of the furniture, but the "staging" of the agent.

The Tale of Two Agents

• The "Guardian": At the busy houses, agents were sharp. They stood up when I entered, had printed data sheets, and controlled the conversation. Their demeanor signaled: "This is a premium asset, and we are confident in our price."

• The "Gatekeeper": At the empty houses, I often found agents in gym-casual wear, sitting on the couch, sometimes scrolling on their phones. Their vibe was: "I'm just putting in my time."

The "Motivation Signal"

As a buyer, you might find the casual agent off-putting. You want someone who treats your purchase with seriousness. However, from an investment standpoint, a listing represented by a disengaged agent can sometimes represent an opportunity.

• They leak information: In my experience, a guarded, professional agent protects the seller's poker hand. A casual agent is more likely to accidentally reveal the seller's motivation (e.g., "Yeah, they already moved to Florida and just want this gone").

• The Strategy: If you want "White Glove Service," buy from the pro in the suit. If you want a deal, don't dismiss the agent who seems relaxed. Build rapport with them—they might be the path to getting your lower offer accepted.

The Math: The "$40,000 Gamble"

The biggest question I hear is: "Should I buy now, or wait for rates to drop?"

Most people treat this as a binary choice. But there is a third option—the Hybrid Strategy—that usually wins.

Let’s run the numbers on a $550,000 home in Celina.

The Assumptions:

• Now (Dec 2025): Rate is 6.5%. Builders are desperate (offering $20k price cuts + incentives).

• Future (Late 2026): Rates drop to 5.5%. Demand returns, pushing prices up just 4% (a conservative estimate).

The Three Scenarios

The Breakdown:

1. If you WAIT (Scenario A): You pay a higher price ($551k) because lower rates brought competition back. You also threw away ~$30,000 in rent for the year while waiting.

2. If you BUY NOW (Scenario B): You pay a higher monthly payment for one year, BUT you secure the asset at the lowest price ($530k).

3. The HYBRID WIN (Scenario C): You buy the house at the "Discounted Price" today. When rates drop to 5.5%, you simply refinance.

   • Result: You get the Lowest Price ($530k) AND the Lowest Rate (5.5%).

   • Bonus: Your payment ($2,407) ends up being nearly $100/month lower than if you had waited, because your loan amount is smaller.

The Bottom Line:

You can always change your interest rate later. You can never change your purchase price.

What Do You See?

I started this blog by telling you about the 15 empty open houses I visited. To some, that silence sounds like a market in trouble. To others, it sounds like opportunity.

The data shows we are in a unique window: inventory is high, "stale" listings are piling up, and sellers are listening. But we also know that markets are cyclical.

I’d love to hear your thoughts:

• Do you think the "December Silence" is just a holiday pause, or a sign of things to come?

• Would you rather lock in a price now with higher rates, or gamble on lower rates (and potentially higher prices) next year?

I am hosting a discussion on this over on my Facebook page. Click here to join the debate and let me know what you think.

Disclaimer: The scenarios and calculations above are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a loan estimate or commitment to lend. Interest rates, tax rates, and appreciation forecasts are estimates based on current market conditions and are subject to change. Refinancing results in a new loan and is subject to credit approval, appraisal, and equity requirements at that future time; closing costs will apply.